جغرافیا و پژوهش های شهری

بررسی رابطه درآمدهای نفتی و قیمت مسکن با گسترش سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی در کلانشهر مشهد (با رویکرد فرضیه بیماری هلندی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

صالح ابراهیمی پور 1
کتایون علیزاده 2

1 گروه جغرافیا، واحد مشهد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مشهد، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه جغرافیا، واحد مشهد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مشهد، ایران.

https://doi.org/10.22130/gur.2026.2087145.1043
چکیده
گسترش سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی یکی از مهم‌ترین پیامدهای نابرابری‌های ساختاری در شهرهای کشورهای در حال توسعه به شمار می‌رود و ریشه آن را می‌توان در تحولات اقتصاد کلان جست‌وجو کرد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف تبیین رابطه میان درآمدهای نفتی، قیمت مسکن و گسترش سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی در کلانشهر مشهد و با رویکرد آزمون فرضیه بیماری هلندی انجام شده است. این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش توصیفی–تحلیلی است که با رویکرد ترکیبی و بهره‌گیری از داده‌های کمی و کیفی در بازه زمانی ۱۳۸۰ تا ۱۴۰۰ انجام شد. جامعه آماری شامل سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی مشهد با ۸ پهنه و ۶۷ محله بود که چهار محله شاخص با روش نمونه‌گیری هدفمند انتخاب شدند. داده‌های کمی از منابع رسمی ملی و محلی گردآوری و با استفاده از آزمون‌های نرمالیتی، همبستگی، رگرسیون، علیت گرنجر و هم‌انباشتگی یوهانسون تحلیل شد. داده‌های کیفی نیز از طریق مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته گردآوری و با روش تحلیل مضمون بررسی گردید. نتایج نشان داد ارزش واقعی درآمدهای نفتی کشور طی دوره مطالعه کاهش محسوسی داشته و هم‌زمان قیمت مسکن در مشهد رشد بسیار شدیدی را تجربه کرده است. تحلیل‌های آماری وجود رابطه مثبت و معنادار میان درآمدهای نفتی و قیمت مسکن و نیز میان قیمت مسکن و رشد جمعیت سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی را تأیید کرد. همچنین آزمون‌های علیت و هم‌انباشتگی از وجود رابطه بلندمدت میان درآمدهای نفتی و بازار مسکن حکایت داشت. یافته‌های کیفی نیز نشان داد گرانی مسکن مهم‌ترین عامل سوق‌دهنده خانوارهای کم‌درآمد به سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی بوده و بخش قابل‌توجهی از درآمد آن‌ها صرف هزینه مسکن می‌شود.بر این اساس، پژوهش حاضر زنجیره علّی «درآمدهای نفتی ← افزایش قیمت مسکن ← گسترش سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی» را تأیید می‌کند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد مدیریت نقدینگی در دوره‌های رونق نفتی، اجرای سیاست‌های پادچرخه‌ای در بازار مسکن، حمایت مالی هدفمند از اقشار کم‌درآمد و برنامه‌های توانمندسازی سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی می‌تواند در کاهش این پدیده نقش مؤثری ایفا کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

درآمدهای نفتی
قیمت مسکن
سکونتگاه‌های غیررسمی
بیماری هلندی
کلانشهرمشهد

عنوان مقاله English

Investigating the relationship between oil revenues and housing prices with the expansion of informal settlements in Mashhad metropolis (with the Dutch disease hypothesis approach)

نویسندگان English

Saleh Ebrahimipour 1
katayoon alizadeh 2
1 a. Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran.
2 b. Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran.
چکیده English

The expansion of informal settlements is one of the most significant consequences of structural inequalities in the cities of developing countries, and its roots can be traced to macroeconomic transformations. The present study was conducted with the aim of explaining the relationship between oil revenues, housing prices, and the expansion of informal settlements in Mashhad metropolis, employing an approach to test the Dutch Disease hypothesis. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method, carried out with a mixed-methods approach utilizing quantitative and qualitative data over the period 2001 to 2021. The statistical population included the informal settlements of Mashhad, comprising 8 zones and 67 neighborhoods, from which four indicator neighborhoods were selected through purposive sampling. Quantitative data were collected from official national and local sources and analyzed using normality tests, correlation, regression, Granger causality, and Johansen cointegration tests. Qualitative data were also gathered through semi-structured interviews and examined using thematic analysis. The results indicated that the real value of the country's oil revenues experienced a significant decline during the study period, while simultaneously, housing prices in Mashhad experienced a very sharp growth. Statistical analyses confirmed the existence of a positive and significant relationship between oil revenues and housing prices, as well as between housing prices and population growth in informal settlements. Furthermore, causality and cointegration tests suggested the existence of a long-term relationship between oil revenues and the housing market. Qualitative findings also revealed that high housing costs are the most significant factor driving low-income households towards informal settlements, and a considerable portion of their income is spent on housing expenses. Accordingly, this study confirms the causal chain of "oil revenues leading to an increase in housing prices and consequently, an expansion of informal settlements." The results indicate that liquidity management during oil boom periods, implementation of counter-cyclical policies in the housing market, targeted financial support for low-income groups, and empowerment programs for informal settlements can play an effective role in mitigating this phenomenon.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Oil Revenues
Housing Prices
Informal Settlements
Dutch Disease
Mashhad Metropolis
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جغرافیا و پژوهش های شهری
دوره 3، شماره 1
بهار 1405
صفحه 15-37

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