Nowadays, cities across the globe, acting as the primary habitats for humanity, are constantly undergoing physical growth; this phenomenon is frequently accompanied by various structural and environmental challenges, often leading to intense pressure on surrounding areas, particularly high-quality agricultural and orchard lands. Such processes, which result in significant land-use changes, ultimately threaten the sustainability of natural resources for future generations. In this context, the city of Heris has also been significantly influenced by population growth and physical expansion during recent decades. This research aims to examine the impact of the physical growth trend of Heris on land-use changes over the past three decades (1991–2021) and to predict its future status. In this study, Landsat 5 ™ and Sentinel-2 satellite images were utilized across three distinct time intervals (1991, 2006, and 2021). Data processing was executed through the Google Earth Engine platform along with specialized software including ArcGIS, ENVI, and Idrisi. Furthermore, linear regression was employed to predict the population for 2026, Shannon’s Entropy was applied to assess land extensibility, and a hybrid model combining Markov Chain and Cellular Automata (CA) was used to predict future land-use patterns.

The results indicate that during this 30-year period, Heris has undergone gradual physical growth and horizontal expansion driven by natural population increases. This trend has caused surrounding lands to undergo land-use changes under the progressive influence of human construction. The physical expansion of Heris has led to the conversion of high-quality lands into built-up areas, which underscores the urgent necessity for effective land-use management and strategic urban planning.