Geography and Urban Research

Identifying Appropriate Development Strategies in Zanjan Province with a Regional Foresight Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Saeed Najafy 1
Reza Hassani 2

1 a. Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.

2 b. Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Engineering, Islamic Azad University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22130/gur.2025.2053325.1016
Abstract
Regional foresight, a novel approach within the field of regional development planning, seeks to realize strategies and key development factors often overlooked in the planning, decision-making, and implementation processes. Therefore, this study seeks to identify appropriate strategies and key development factors in Zanjan province using the regional foresight approach. The research method is descriptive-analytical, based on provincial statistical data and employing interaction/structural effects analysis techniques in MICMAC software. The results indicate an unstable system based on the dispersion of variables influencing future development in Zanjan province. From an initial set of 25 factors, analysis of the direct effects matrix identified 13 key factors impacting the development of the province. These were compared to 13 key factors identified through an analysis of the indirect effects matrix. The comparison revealed that the five factors of ‘tourism attractions of the province,’ ‘diversity of economic sectors,’ ‘weakness in social justice,’ ‘economic growth rate,’ and ‘attraction of large capital’ consistently ranked highly in both matrices. These five factors warrant increased attention moving forward. Economic factors have exerted the most significant influence on the development of Zanjan province, while environmental factors have had the least impact. To promote development, it is recommended that planning and future studies adopt new approaches, emphasizing tourism, knowledge-based economic policies, increased investment (attracting national capital), cultural diversity, social justice, and strong management at the provincial level.

Keywords

Development
Strategy Identification
Regional Foresight Approach
Zanjan Province
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Geography and Urban Research
Volume 2, Issue 1
Spring 2025
Pages 66-81

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